The Most Credible Gigawatts in June 2026 Are Being Built Off the Grid, Not On It
Project Jupiter, Microsoft Pecos, and the Chevron 2.7-gigawatt Texas complex all pair scale with on-site generation. Inside the fuel cells, the gas plants, and why SoftBank and Lesotho cleared June.
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TL;DR
Under-construction capacity, not announced capacity, separated June’s real movement from its noise. Project Jupiter in southern New Mexico, anchored by Oracle and OpenAI, combines 2.5 GW of planned capacity with on-site fuel-cell generation, making it the most executable of six North American deals that scored a perfect nine. Most other headline projects remained at the proposed stage.
The largest capital commitments concentrated in sovereign-aligned and hyperscaler-anchored programs across five regions. SoftBank committed €45 billion to a 3.1 GW project in France, AirTrunk committed $21.05 billion to a 3 GW campus near Mumbai, and Lesotho signed a $6.2 billion hydropower-powered AI data center agreement with Convalt Energy.
Power structure, not land, determined which deals were credible. The deals that advanced carried behind-the-meter generation, binding grid agreements, or utility power contracts, while Latin America produced only four transactions and the Middle East and Africa only nine, exposing how thin the credible pipeline remains outside the established corridors.
Key Signals of the Month
June 2026 recorded 167 tracked transactions, but the strongest deals revealed a clearer trend than volume alone.
Across every region, top-performing projects shared one defining advantage: credible power.
Capital, land, and announced capacity remained abundant, but only projects with secured power or active execution advanced the market.
The gap between executable projects and headline announcements continued to widen.
Power remained the industry’s primary constraint, though it differed by region.
North America increasingly relied on behind-the-meter and on-site generation to bypass grid delays, Europe depended on coordinated land, financing, and government support, while Asia advanced through early utility commitments.
Frontier markets largely remained limited by insufficient power infrastructure.
Sovereigns also emerged as key market builders.
Lesotho, Turkey, China, and South Korea all advanced national-scale AI infrastructure initiatives, showing that government coordination is increasingly essential for delivering large projects, particularly in emerging markets.
Meanwhile, hyperscalers prioritized securing power-backed capacity years in advance.
Oracle, OpenAI, Meta, Anthropic, and Microsoft all expanded through projects tied to dedicated or contracted power, shifting execution risk to developers while ensuring future compute capacity.
North America and Europe remained the global leaders, Asia showed broad momentum, while Latin America and the Middle East & Africa produced only a few standout projects.
June confirmed that competitive advantage now belongs to regions that can convert announcements into power-backed execution.
Top 5 Deals — Deep Dives
This month’s deal log highlights five transactions reshaping the global AI infrastructure landscape across North America, Europe, APAC, Latin America, and the Middle East and Africa. Together, they show how power alignment, supported by capital access and platform execution, is determining where the next generation of AI capacity will be deployed.
Project Jupiter, Doña Ana County, New Mexico (North America)
Project Jupiter is North America's defining transaction because it solves the industry's biggest challenge: power.
While six U.S. projects scored a perfect nine in June, five remained announced or proposed.
Jupiter is already under construction, with 2.5 GW of planned capacity, Oracle and OpenAI as anchor tenants, and development by STACK Infrastructure, making it the most executable of the month's largest U.S. projects.
Power is both Jupiter's strength and its caveat.
The project replaced water-intensive gas turbines with on-site fuel cells, addressing local water concerns while relying on a behind-the-meter, gas-based power system rather than renewables.
Its reported multibillion-dollar investment remains unconfirmed, but Jupiter shows that pairing controlled power with committed hyperscale tenants can move a 2.5 GW campus into construction while larger projects remain in negotiation.
Jupiter signals that North America's most credible capacity is shifting toward sites with self-supplied power and committed anchor tenants.
The market is increasingly divided between projects with demonstrated execution and those with only announced scale.
SoftBank Hauts-de-France 3.1-Gigawatt Program (Europe)
SoftBank’s French program is Europe’s standout transaction, pairing the region’s largest disclosed capacity (3.1 GW) with its largest disclosed investment (€45 billion) within a national AI infrastructure strategy.
In a market constrained by grid delays and permitting, its scale, regional focus, and sovereign-backed sponsorship make it Europe’s clearest strategic signal.
The power story remains less certain.
The project relies on France’s grid, with EDF involvement but no disclosed dedicated power source.
The €45 billion reflects first-phase investment only, not the broader €75 billion national program.
As such, it represents national industrial ambition more than energized capacity.
For Europe, the project positions France as the continent’s leading AI infrastructure market and reinforces a model built on early alignment between government, major investors, and regional development.
It also suggests Europe’s gigawatt-scale growth will come from a few nationally coordinated hubs rather than incremental expansion in saturated metros.
AirTrunk Raigad 3-Gigawatt Mumbai Project (APAC)
AirTrunk’s Mumbai-region project is APAC’s standout transaction and one of India’s largest announced data center investments.
The company signed a land allotment LOI for a 3 GW campus in Maharashtra’s Raigad district, backed by $21.05 billion, reinforcing India’s position as Asia’s leading AI infrastructure market.
The key uncertainty is power.
While the capacity and investment are well documented, the project remains at the land-allotment stage with no disclosed project-specific power source.
It represents one of the region’s largest announced commitments, but not yet secured or energized capacity.
For APAC, the deal reflects a broader trend: India is attracting the region’s largest AI infrastructure investments, while Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Japan, and South Korea provide strong regional depth.
AirTrunk highlights India’s willingness to pursue the largest-scale projects, provided power infrastructure keeps pace.
Elea Rio AI City, Rio de Janeiro (Latin America)
Elea’s Rio AI City is Latin America’s standout transaction and, with only four tracked regional deals, defines the region’s June narrative.
The project targets 1.5 GW of renewable-powered AI capacity in Rio de Janeiro, with potential expansion to 3.2 GW, while integrating digital infrastructure with urban redevelopment.
Its first facility is operational and a second is under construction, giving it stronger credibility than most regional announcements.
Renewable energy is the project’s strategic advantage.
Elea plans to power the campus with 100% certified renewable energy, though the 1.5 GW reflects phased development rather than delivered capacity, and the larger expansion remains uncommitted.
It is a credible multi-phase project built on real execution.
For Latin America, Rio AI City shows the region can support large, renewable-powered AI campuses.
However, with few comparable projects, June’s regional competitiveness depended largely on this single development, highlighting both the model’s potential and the limited execution elsewhere.
Convalt Energy and Lesotho, Project Kobong (Middle East & Africa)
The Lesotho agreement is the Middle East and Africa’s defining transaction and a clear example of the region’s sovereign-led model.
Lesotho signed a $6.2 billion agreement with Convalt Energy for Project Kobong, combining 1,200 MW of hydropower with an integrated AI data center to reduce electricity imports and support long-term AI infrastructure.
The project treats power and compute as a single state-led system.
Its strength and limitation is its focus on power.
The 1,200 MW refers to hydropower generation, while the data center’s IT capacity remains undisclosed.
As a framework agreement, it is best viewed as sovereign infrastructure planning rather than a shovel-ready data center.
Excluding the 5.6 GW Stark Power–Sagebrush U.S. land acquisition, Lesotho stands as the region’s leading transaction.
Together with Turkey’s $3 billion AI roadmap and Emirati-backed initiatives, it shows that Middle East and African growth is being driven by a small number of state-led projects rather than a broad private market.
Regional Scorecards
North America
North America led June with six top-scoring deals. The defining trend was developer-controlled power, as projects paired large capacity with behind-the-meter or on-site generation to reduce grid dependence. Capital remained strong through major financings, but the key divide was between projects with confirmed execution and those offering scale alone.
Europe
Europe recorded strong deal volume but uneven quality. Credible gigawatt-scale activity centered on a few French and Spanish projects, led by SoftBank’s 3.1 GW program. Many UK proposals faced grid constraints, with some relying on interim gas power. The region’s momentum is shifting toward sovereign AI and power-coordinated mega-precincts rather than legacy metro expansion.
APAC
Asia competed on breadth rather than dominance. AirTrunk’s Mumbai project led the region, supported by major investments across Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, and other markets. Competitive advantage came from securing power early, fast permitting, and sovereign support, with capital continuing to favor jurisdictions that can deliver land and power quickly.
Latin America
Latin America saw limited activity, with four Brazil-based transactions led by Elea’s Rio AI City. The region’s renewable energy advantage remains compelling, but June exposed its limited depth, as few operators have yet translated clean power into bankable AI infrastructure.
Middle East and Africa
The Middle East and Africa advanced through sovereign-led initiatives rather than broad market activity. Nine transactions produced one top-tier deal the Lesotho hydropower-and-compute project alongside major programs in Turkey, the UAE, and Saudi-backed Uzbekistan. The region’s progress will depend on large state-led agreements that integrate land, power, and policy.
Forward Indicators
The clearest forward signals in North America point to Texas, Wyoming, and the Midwest, where developers are pairing land with self-supplied power.
Projects in West Texas, Wyoming, Pecos, and Kansas City suggest the next wave of 500 MW+ campuses will favor regions with controllable power and anchor tenants.
In Europe, momentum concentrates in France and Spain. Projects led by SoftBank, Brookfield, Data4, Ignis, and DayOne are creating power-coordinated growth hubs.
The UK remains constrained by grid delays, while Finland and Norway continue to provide the region’s most reliable renewable-powered capacity growth.
APAC’s momentum is driven by India and Southeast Asia.
India leads AI infrastructure investment, while Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand advance through utility-backed power and faster approvals.
South Korea and Japan add regional depth, with the next capacity wave favoring jurisdictions that secure land and power first.
Latin America’s next capacity will remain anchored in Brazil.
Projects led by Elea and Voltalia highlight renewable energy as the region’s growth driver, but broader expansion depends on more operators converting clean power into bankable AI campuses.
The Middle East and Africa show the most sovereign-directed pipeline.
Turkey, the UAE, Saudi-backed projects, and Lesotho show the region's growth is driven by large state-led initiatives rather than broad private investment.
Investor Takeaways
For institutional investors, June confirmed that power-secured, platform-scale projects outperform capacity announcements alone.
The investment edge now lies in markets where power, capital, and land are aligned, making credible power the key pricing factor.
For sovereign funds, governments are increasingly structuring investable platforms by combining land, power, and policy.
Sovereign partnerships are becoming the primary gateway to frontier market opportunities.
For operators and developers, land is no longer enough.
Secured power, anchor tenants, and a clear path to energization now define project credibility.
For utilities and policymakers, AI data centres require coordinated power and infrastructure planning.
Regions that cannot deliver reliable energy risk losing investment to better-prepared markets.