Welcome to Global Data Center Hub. Join investors, operators, and innovators reading to stay ahead of the latest trends in the data center sector in developed and emerging markets globally.
The global data center pipeline is worth about $2.3 trillion. Only about $492 billion of it is under construction.
That gap is the story of this quarter. I reviewed 14 of the quarter’s most consequential reports, from JLL, CBRE, Cushman & Wakefield, Goldman Sachs, PwC, McKinsey, Structure Research, Uptime Institute, DC Byte, and Turner & Townsend. Three patterns kept coming up:
Compute is moving to where the power is.
Announced capacity is far bigger than the capacity that can actually be delivered.
Lenders and bond buyers are taking on more construction and tenant risk.
Each report looks at a different stage of the same buildout. Some track planned campuses, others construction, pre-leasing, equipment spending, or future demand, so reading them side by side gives you the whole funnel instead of one slice.
I kept coming back to one question, really two. Which capacity has the power, the customer, the financing, the equipment, and a realistic path to becoming revenue-producing infrastructure? And who captures the value when it does?
Here’s what’s inside:
My verdict, and three findings that could change your next investment or development decision
A simple ladder you can use to tell announced capacity from real capacity
Where the opportunities are for you right now
Who captures the value as compute moves
The questions worth your attention, and what I’ll be watching next quarter
All 14 reports, ranked
The GDCH Verdict
Demand is real. Vacancy in North America has sat at 1% for three years, and pre-leasing keeps climbing.
But the headline pipelines are bigger than what will get built by 2030. Building keeps getting more expensive. And more of the funding now goes to projects with tenants that don’t have investment-grade ratings.
I think the opportunity is large. It’s smaller and slower than the announcement totals suggest, though, and the risk is landing in new places.
Key Trends: Three Findings That Change Decisions
1. Compute Is Moving to the Power
In North America, 77% of capacity under construction sits in what JLL calls frontier markets. That means newer, power-rich US locations such as West Texas and Ohio. Atlanta has now passed Northern Virginia for capacity under construction, at 2,882 MW (CBRE).
Europe’s the same. New hyperscale sites in the 2026-2028 pipeline sit 175 km from a hub city on average, up from 46 km (JLL). In Asia-Pacific, pre-leasing grew fastest in Indonesia (about fivefold) and Thailand (about ninefold), according to Cushman & Wakefield.
What it means for you: Your site search now starts with the grid. Being in a famous market matter less than having a firm date for power.
2. The Pipeline Is Bigger Than What Will Get Built
Cushman & Wakefield sizes the global development pipeline at about $2.3 trillion. About $492 billion of that is under construction, roughly one dollar in five.
Structure Research makes the same point in gigawatts. Gross announcements add up to about 223 GW. Its netted estimate of funded, energized AI capacity by 2030 is about 150 GW, a gap of up to 73 GW.
That gap has two parts, and each one needs its own fix. One is duplication: the same campus announced by the developer, the operator, and the tenant. The other is delivery: letters of intent with no site yet, and projects still lining up power or financing.
What it means for you: Removing duplicates is only step one. A clean pipeline can still hold projects that won’t switch on by 2030. If you size a market from announcements alone, you’ll overestimate future supply.
3. More of the Risk Is Landing on Lenders
High-yield bonds raised about $27.8 billion for data centers across 12 deals in H1 2026 (CBRE). SASB, CMBS, and ABS issuance reached $17 billion, up 29% (JLL).
Developers building for tenants without investment-grade ratings can still borrow 70-80% of construction cost, according to JLL. They pay 2 to 3 percentage points more than top-credit deals. Take-or-pay clauses now commit tenants to paying for 60-85% of their allocated power (CBRE).
What it means for you: Lenders are pricing this risk, and the wider spreads show it. If you’re lending or investing, the question to ask on each deal is whether the price fits the tenant and the lease in front of you.
From Announced to Earning: A Capacity Ladder
Pre-leasing is evidence of demand. It isn’t proof of delivery.
Each step on the way to revenue proves something different:
Announced: a sponsor wants to build.
Site secured: the sponsor has land access.
Tenant signed: there’s demand, subject to the contract’s conditions.
Power contracted: supply is committed but not yet switched on.
Financed and under construction: delivery becomes much more credible.
Energized and commissioned: the building is physically ready.
Accepted and earning revenue: the cash flow is real.
Most headline numbers sit on steps 1 to 3. CBRE’s 80.4% pre-leasing figure is strong evidence on step 3, for capacity that has also reached step 5.
Before you treat any capacity as real, check six things: the power delivery date, the financing conditions, the construction milestones, equipment delivery, when the lease actually starts paying, and what the customer must accept before it does.
Key Opportunities
1. Power-Ready Sites in Frontier Markets
JLL finds land in primary European markets prices at 4x tertiary ones. Cushman & Wakefield expects frontier-market capex to grow 6.9-fold, to $631 billion. CBRE expects West Texas to be a top-five colocation market by 2028.
Getting power and permits early gives you an edge. That edge turns into value when the cost, the customer contract, the financing, the delivery schedule, and your ownership rights also line up.
2. Financing That Climbs the Ladder
APAC operators raised more than $43 billion of debt across 2025 and 2026, against a capex need of more than $280 billion through 2030 (Cushman & Wakefield). Somebody has to fund the difference.
The strongest lending opportunities sit at step 4 and above: projects with contracted power, take-or-pay terms, and tenants with strong credit. If you provide construction debt, mezzanine, or preferred equity, those projects look like some of the clearest openings in the market.
3. The Physical Supply Chain
Power is the largest single cost in a greenfield build, about 21% of the total (Cushman & Wakefield). Nearly a quarter of operators already run racks at 30 kW or more (Uptime), and AI-ready facilities cost 25-35% more to build (Cushman & Wakefield).
Then there’s hiring: 53% of operators struggle to find qualified staff. That puts equipment makers, cooling specialists, electrical contractors and training providers on the critical path, and it’s where I’d look first if you’re investing in the supply chain.
Who Captures the Value as Compute Moves?
When compute moves to a power-rich place, that place has a real chance to capture more of the value. How much depends on which parts of the stack it owns.
The Q3 numbers show where the value sits:
Most of the money goes into equipment. PwC expects equipment to rise from 70% of AI infrastructure investment today to 93% by 2050.
Cloud companies are building more for themselves. In Europe, hyperscaler self-builds are growing faster than colocation, 22% versus 18% (CBRE).
Local platforms can lead. Three local operators hold 85% of Brazil’s capacity (DC Byte).
Demand comes from a few large buyers. Outside Mainland China, Western cloud providers account for about 70% of hyperscaler demand in APAC, and Chinese providers about 30% (McKinsey).
If you invest, develop, or make policy in a host market, here’s what I’d ask. Who owns the generation, the land, the fiber, the buildings, and the operating platform? Is local capital in the deal? Who owns the customer relationship and the chips? Where do the recurring profits go? And is a sovereign AI program building local skills as well as capacity?
Key Issues
1. Tenant Concentration
A lot of the new demand rests on a handful of large buyers, and a growing share of the debt rests on their leases. Structure Research shows how concentrated revenue can be: one leading neocloud earned about 67% of its 2025 revenue from a single customer.
Goldman’s research adds useful context. AI investment is about 1.8% of US GDP this year, below the 2-5% peaks of past technology buildouts, which suggests room to grow. At the project level, what matters for you is the strength of each tenant and each lease.
2. Rising Costs
Construction costs are up 21% per MW since late 2024 (Cushman & Wakefield). Prime powered land in FLAP-D has risen 82% since 2021, to €2.26 million per MW (JLL). Power caused 56% of the most recent serious outages, up from 45% (Uptime).
Turner & Townsend adds the wider view. Data centers compete with every other big project for the same electricians, steel, and freight. Your budget should plan for that.
3. Questions Worth Your Attention
Four areas where you can get ahead of the market:
Water planning. More than half of operators now track water use (Uptime). As liquid cooling spreads, water will matter more in your site decisions.
China’s build-out. McKinsey puts Mainland China at more than 70% of APAC demand by 2030, about 58 GW. If you work in Asia-Pacific, it’s a market worth understanding on its own terms.
Upgrading older facilities. 27% of Uptime respondents work in data centers more than 15 years old, and average PUE has held near 1.52 for seven years. Retrofits that bring these sites up to modern density and efficiency deserve a close look.
Local ownership. As capacity moves into new markets, the structures that bring local capital and local operators into deals are worth your attention.
What I’ll Be Watching Next Quarter
Delivery dates. Do pre-leased projects hit their power and completion dates?
Credit spreads. I’ll track the extra cost of lending to tenants without investment-grade ratings as volumes rise.
The netted pipeline. If Structure Research’s 150 GW estimate moves, the direction matters more than the size.
APAC momentum. One strong half-year in Indonesia and Thailand is a signal. Two would be a trend.
Vacancy outside primary markets. It’s the first place you’d see supply getting ahead of demand.
The 14 Reports, Ranked
I ranked these by how useful they are for your strategy, budget, and policy decisions. Two were released in late June. I included them because their data shaped this quarter’s discussion.
1. The AI Infrastructure Market Report 2026
Source: Structure Research | Independent research | June 30, 2026
A clear look at how announced capacity turns into real capacity. It tracks AI data center capacity growing from about 2.3 GW today to 150 GW by 2030, and finds that gross announcements of about 223 GW are up to 73 GW above funded, energized capacity.
2. North America Data Center Report Midyear 2026
Source: JLL | Real estate advisory | August 11, 2026
Vacancy has held at 1% for the third straight year, and JLL expects it to stay near zero through 2028. More than 66 GW is under construction, 77% of it in frontier markets. Developers building for tenants without investment-grade ratings can still borrow 70-80% of cost.
3. North America Data Center Trends H1 2026
Source: CBRE | Real estate advisory | August 27, 2026
Atlanta has passed Northern Virginia for capacity under construction, at 2,882 MW. Primary-market vacancy hit a record low of 1.4%, 80.4% of capacity under construction is pre-leased, and high-yield bonds raised about $27.8 billion in H1 2026.
4. Global AI Investment Is Forecast to Exceed $1 Trillion in 2026
Source: Goldman Sachs | Bank research | August 7, 2026
Puts global AI investment at about $1 trillion in 2026, and about $1.8 trillion since 2022. It shows that hyperscaler capex covers most, but not all, of that total, leaving roughly $200 billion of AI spending elsewhere. US AI investment reaches 1.8% of GDP.
5. 2026 Data Center Development Cost Guide
Source: Cushman & Wakefield | Real estate advisory | September 3, 2026
Sizes the global pipeline at about $2.3 trillion, with $492 billion under construction. Costs are up 21% per MW since late 2024, and a modern greenfield build runs about $17.6 million per MW in the US and Canada, excluding chips.
6. Global Data Centre Outlook 2026-50
Source: PwC | Consultancy | September 2, 2026
Forecasts $31.6 trillion in cumulative AI infrastructure capex from 2026 to 2050, with equipment rising from 70% to 93% of the total. Tighter export controls would reduce the total by about $6 trillion.
7. Beyond the Spillover: Asia-Pacific, the Next Engine of Data Center Demand
Source: McKinsey & Company | Consultancy | June 22, 2026
Projects APAC at about 34% of global data center demand by 2030, with Mainland China more than 70% of that. AWS, Google, Microsoft, and Oracle committed more than $160 billion to the region between January 2024 and May 2026.
8. EMEA Data Centre Mid-Year 2026 Report
Source: JLL | Real estate advisory | August 3, 2026
New hyperscale sites sit 175 km from a hub city on average, up from 46 km. Greenfield rises from 8% to 39% of the pipeline. FLAP-D vacancy is 6.4%, and Frankfurt is at 3.1%.
9. 2026 Asia Pacific Data Centre Investment Landscape
Source: Cushman & Wakefield | Real estate advisory | August 25, 2026
APAC has more than 60% of the world’s people and 22% of its operating capacity. Pre-leasing rose 115% between H1 2025 and H1 2026, and the region needs more than $280 billion of capex through 2030.
10. Global Data Center Survey 2026
Source: Uptime Institute | Operator survey | July 2026
The view from inside the building. 53% of operators struggle to find qualified staff, power caused 56% of recent serious outages, and cost tops management’s list of concerns.
11. European Data Centres Figures Q2 2026
Source: CBRE | Real estate advisory | August 17, 2026
Expects European capacity to reach 13 GW by year-end, up 20%. AI colocation signings more than quadrupled in H1, and hyperscaler self-builds are growing faster than colocation.
12. 2026 Global Data Centre Index Report
Source: DC Byte | Data provider | July 27, 2026
Ranks markets on three tests (demand, delivery, depth). Atlanta has 10.8 GW in its development pipeline, while Ashburn faces 5-7 year grid connection waits. In Finland, 84% of capacity is at an early stage.
13. Global Construction Market Intelligence 2026
Source: Turner & Townsend | Cost consultancy | 2026 edition
Covers 112 markets in 44 countries. Housing and offices are cooling while tech and infrastructure grow, and labor, energy, and geopolitics are pushing up materials and freight. Data centers bid for the same trades as every other big project.
14. LATAM Data Center Market Spotlight
Source: DC Byte | Data provider | August 28, 2026
Planned Latin American capacity is up more than 10 GW since 2021. Three local operators hold 85% of Brazil’s capacity, and Chile has doubled to 600 MW in about three years.
Ownership is where I’ll dig in next quarter. If you’re seeing it play out in a market you work in, hit reply and tell me what you’re seeing.
The gap between $2.3 trillion announced and $492 billion actually being built is a great way to frame it. I lean toward the companies that get paid once the building starts, which is a big reason Arista's in my Growth portfolio https://fulcruminsights.substack.com/p/arista-just-grew-faster-than-ever
$2.3 trillion in pipeline with about $492 billion under construction means roughly four out of five dollars in the AI buildout are still slideware. The ladder from announced to real capacity is the most useful part for me, because the same campus announced by the developer, the operator, and the tenant is basically triple counting a press release. And "your site search now starts with the grid" is the line of the quarter: location, location, location just became megawatts, megawatts, megawatts.